March May be the New February for Presidential Announcements
On the heels of my post this week predicting a February 10 Presidential bid announcement for Governor Haley Barbour, the Wall Street Journal ran an article today that exposes my analysis as poor.
The Journal article points out that early contests have been pushed back from January to February of 2012:
The first four nominating contests—in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada—have been pushed to February 2012, a month later than in 2008. But potentially more significant was the Republican National Committee's August ruling that any primaries the following month—including those in the normally pivotal Super Tuesday cluster—can't be winner-take-all. Instead, those states will have to award their delegates proportionally to the candidates' vote share, which could make it harder for one candidate to rack up large totals early in the campaign.
Haley Barbour is mentioned in the article with speculation that he wants to wait until the 2011 Mississippi Legislative Session is over before announcing.
I don't expect Barbour to be the last into the field where he would have to come from the back of the field as far as organization.
Once any of the Republicans announce that they are in the race, it could be a stampede to get in by the rest. I will be surprised if that happens later than March or early April.
