Without question my favorite web site for the November presidential election is electoral-vote.com. Rather than focus on somewhat meaningless national polls, the site focuses on the electoral college math that will actually decide the election.
The current standings:
- Obama– 332
- Romney– 206.
Romney has a lot of work to do. Much more than if you only pay attention to the network’s national polls.
The site is updated every morning with the latest poll results and excellent and unbiased analysis. This post from last week points out that the election will be decided by a relatively small number of undecided voters in the swing states:
Chris Cillizza has an interesting column about the existence of two parallel campaigns. One of them is going on inside the Beltway and among insiders and political junkies around the country. Obama is winning this by hitting Romney over and over on his taxes and his time at Bain Capital. The other one is going on in the rest of the country and nothing moves the needle. Obama has had a 1-2% lead for months and this does not change no matter what the news is because all the voters care about is the economy.
We challenge this view and point out that there is a third campaign underway and it is the only one that matters. It is for the votes of the 5% of the voters who haven’t made up their minds yet and who also happen to live in one of about 10 swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia). The combined populations of these states is about 68 million, so it is the 3.4 million undecided voters in these states who will decide the presidential election. No one else really matters much (for the presidential race), barring some very unexpected development.
If you are one of those 3.4 million undecided voters in the swing states, what do you base your vote on? Economic leadership? Can either candidate fix the nation’s underlying economic problems? Doubtful.
Romney seems more likely to start a war with Iran. But I’m not sure people are paying attention or really care about that.
So what does that leave as the issues to decide the election? Campaign rhetoric about the economy that neither can fix? Romney’s shady finances? Obama’s race? (I say no on this because race voters aren’t undecided). Healthcare reform? Gut feeling? Unforeseen events between now and the election?
I don’t have a clue.