Several recent newspaper articles and columns speculate on a possible Haley Barbour presidential run in 2012. Here are links to an A.P. article, a short Washington Post article, and a David Hampton column in the Sunday edition of the Clarion-Ledger. The Washington Post story contains the following quote:
As one GOP operative who forwarded today’s invitation to the Sleuth put it, “Here’s Haley Barbour making some 2012 moves. When you start going to Iowa and New Hampshire, the writing’s on the wall.”
Speculation is growing about whether Barbour could win the Republican nomination in 2012 and, if so, whether he could win the general election. While I am not laying the odds on either happening, he looks like a viable candidate for several reasons. First, look at history. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama all arguably came more out of nowhere to win the presidency than Barbour would. Barbour looks more plugged in with his party than Carter or Clinton and faces less competition than Obama in getting the nomination.
My second point is Barbour himself. People criticize his heavy southern drawl, but unlike our last two term president, no one ever says that he sounds or is stupid. He is smart and interviews well. He looked and acted like a leader in the days following Katrina–unlike Louisiana and federal leadership.
Third, look at the competition. Palin? Gingrich? Romney? You can make just as good a case against everyone else as against Barbour.
Finally, look at how the parties select their nominees. It’s a crap shoot. Win Iowa and New Hampshire and everyone else winds up broke and goes home. McCain looked dead as the nominee for months and then he wiped out the field. Most states don’t even have a real say in the nomination. Last year the democratic primary was the first time I can remember it not being over by the time Mississippians got to vote.
The nomination process is like a football game decided mid-way through the first quarter. Arkansas State might score an early touchdown and take the lead over Florida, but the game isn’t called with Arkansas State declared the winner. But that’s basically how the nomination process works. If Haley Barbour–or anyone else–is winning early, then they can win the nomination. And while it’s true that not anyone can be in the lead early, Barbour is among the people who can be. So I don’t see how you can discount Barbour as a real possibility.
Win the nomination and Barbour can win the presidency. The 2012 general election will likely be about the nation’s feelings about the Obama presidency. The Republican nominee will not matter nearly as much as how the nation feels about Obama.