Any doubts about whether Justice James Graves would be confirmed to serve on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals seemed to be put to rest on Friday with Mississippi Republican Senator Roger Wicker’s endorsement of Graves.

So how does Graves’ imminent departure impact the future of the Mississippi Supreme Court? It’s hard to say at this point, but the possibilities are frightening. Graves is viewed as a left of center justice. His replacement will be appointed by the conservative Governor Haley Barbour. That is potentially bad for both the legal rights of individuals and the legal profession in Mississippi.

Barbour will face pressure from tort reformers to appoint a replacement for Graves who appears certain to uphold the legislative caps on non-economic damages and will support a reversion to the Court’s pattern under Chief Justice Smith of going years without affirming a plaintiff’s verdict. That practice was exposed in 2008 by respected Jackson defense lawyer Alex Alston.

According to Alston, in the 4 1/2 years prior to June 2008 the Mississippi Supreme Court reversed 88% of jury verdicts that favored wronged victims. During the same time period, the Court reversed 0% of jury verdicts that favored big business. Alston went public with his criticisms. The Court’s swinging too far to the right is widely believed to be the primary reason that Chief Justice Smith lost his re-election bid to Jim Kitchens.

Smith’s defeat signaled that any Supreme Court candidate who can be portrayed as always voting for one side is vulnerable in an election. After Smith’s defeat, Justice Waller became Chief Justice and the Court’s decisions in civil cases began to reflect a swing from the far right to the middle. No longer are defense lawyers telling plaintiff lawyers that if you get a verdict, we’ll just appeal and get you reversed. No longer are defense lawyers bragging that: “there is not an argument I can make that (insert name-you know who I mean)will not buy.”

Incidentally, most of the defense lawyers who made these jokes were morons. They just couldn’t figure out why plaintiff lawyers weren’t filing cases any more. As if plaintiff lawyers were motivated by creating billable hours for defense lawyers. Smart defense lawyers were just as concerned about the Court’s decisions as plaintiff lawyers and are now just as happy about the Court’s moderation.

Some people speculate that Governor Barbour and Mississippi conservatives are happy to get Justice Graves off the Supreme Court so that they can appoint a more conservative successor and try to roll back the progress made under Chief Justice Waller’s leadership.

So who does Barbour appoint? Unless he wants to commit political suicide it must be an African-American, since Graves is the only African-American on the Court. The name that I have heard most often is Jackson attorney La’Verne Edney, who is a partner in the Brunini Law Firm and currently serves as General Counsel of the Mississippi Volunteer Lawyers Project. Edney’s background is as a defense lawyers and she is perceived as being a possible conservative vote on the Court.

Hinds County Chancery Court Judge Denise Owens is a good judge who would be a popular pick in the Bar. But her husband and brother are prominent plaintiff lawyers, so her appointment might not be popular in all circles. Another possibility is Chancery Court Judge Vicki Barnes of Vicksburg. I have been impressed with Judge Barnes in my limited appearances before her and she has shown an attention to detail that would be a plus for an appellate judge.

There has also been speculation that Governor Barbour might promote Chief Judge Leslie King from the Court of Appeals, giving Barbour an additional appointment. Proponents of this theory point out that Barbour’s record of appointing minority judges is still bad. Elevating King would allow Barbour to appoint two minority judges on the State’s appellate courts.

One factor with Governor Barbour that is often over-looked is whether the appointee can win an election for the seat. It is my understanding that Barbour places great weight on this factor. He wants his appointees to win their next elections, presumably because they are a reflection on his political legacy.

At this point, I am not aware of a clear favorite for the seat. My guess is that strong rumors will emerge within the next few weeks. I will do my best to stay on top of this developing story and post what I am hearing.